The 'Angliru of the South' nickname suggests this stage is about survival, but the real question is whether Roglič can flip a form deficit rather than just limit losses. He's done it here before — in 2022 he opened nearly 50 seconds on the race leader on this exact climb. Decathlon-Quickstep's Gall arrives without Mühlberger after his Stage 13 abandonment, one less card to play if the group splits on the 13% ramps in the final kilometre.